Ntugasaze vs Express prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Express to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 65%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Express are favourites at 47%, with Ntugasaze on 24% and the draw on 29%. Ntugasaze are 16th and Express 13th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, Ntugasaze won one and Express none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ntugasaze win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Express win or draw
- 76%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 62%
- 3+ goals
- 35%
- 4+ goals
- 16%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Ntugasaze and 1.3 from Express. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–2 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% | 29% | 47% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1918 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ntugasaze: last 6
LWLLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Mbarara City | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Vipers | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | at BUL | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Maroons | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Blacks Power | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 at home: LWL
Express: last 6
DLDDLW · 4 scored, 5 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Lugazi | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs UPDF | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | at NEC | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Kitara | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | at SC Villa | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Sep | vs KCCA | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 away: DDLL
Season stats
| Ntugasaze | Express | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 0.57 |
| 2.17 | Goals conceded per game | 0.86 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 14% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 6 and 7 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Ntugasaze 19Express 11
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ntugasaze 0 · Express 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
