URA vs Vipers prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vipers to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge: Vipers' 13-2 record, 4.50 goals per game away and 67% clean sheets against a URA side scoreless at home make the away win the clear lean, with probabilities clustering near the published 18/24/59. On totals, URA's blank home attack and the 2.16 league scoring average push two of three below the published 46% for over 2.5.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVipers' away scoring and URA's blank home attack point one way
URA have scored 0.00 per game at home this season and failed to score in 50% of matches, while Vipers average 4.50 away and keep clean sheets in 67%. Vipers concede just 0.33 per game, so a low-scoring away win looks the natural shape.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSix games in, the table gap already shapes this one
URA sit 15th with 4 points from 6 (W1 D1 L4) and have lost four of their last six, with no home win in their last three. Vipers are 6th on 11 points, unbeaten in five, and arrive with 8 days' rest to URA's 7 - the pressure is all on the home side.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 59% away number looks fair, but 46% over 2.5 may be high
Vipers' 13-2 goal record and two away wins (9 scored, 0 conceded) justify a strong away lean, so 59% reads about right. But URA's home games have produced just 2 goals in 3, and the league averages 2.16 per match - under 2.5 looks likelier than the published 46%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vipers are favourites at 59%, with URA on 17% and the draw on 24%. URA are 15th and Vipers 6th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, URA won none and Vipers three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- URA win or draw
- 41%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Vipers win or draw
- 82%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 0.8 goals from URA and 1.7 from Vipers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 24% | 59% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1917 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
URA: last 6
LDLLLW · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Blacks Power | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs KCCA | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs SC Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Maroons | 2–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: DLL
Vipers: last 6
DWDWWL · 13 scored, 2 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Police | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Kataka | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Maroons | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Blacks Power | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ntugasaze | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Entebbe UPPC | 0–1 | L |
Last 2 away: WW
Season stats
| URA | Vipers | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 2.17 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 0.33 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 4.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | -3 | 5 | LWLDD |
| 15 | URA | 6 | -5 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | -10 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | -13 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | -8 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- URA 7Vipers 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: URA 1 · Vipers 1
- Goals in this league
- Uganda Premier League average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
