Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Union St. Gilloise to win: 70%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point towards a Union St. Gilloise win, driven by superior home form and league standing. The data suggests the home side is in a much stronger position, despite the market odds being relatively close to the published figures.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Union St. Gilloise's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersUnion St. Gilloise's strong attack and defence suggest a comfortable home victory.
Union St. Gilloise averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.50. Hapoel Beer Sheva concedes 1.00 per game, and their away form has seen them concede 9 goals in 4 matches.
Union St. Gilloise: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe disparity in league standing and zone placement heavily favours the home side.
Union St. Gilloise sits 12th in the table, securing 4 points from 2 games, placing them in the Knockout play-offs. Hapoel Beer Sheva is 25th, having gathered only 1 point, placing them in the Eliminated zone.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market odds may underestimate the strength of Union St. Gilloise's current form.
Union St. Gilloise has won 3 of their last 5 home matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding only 2.
Union St. Gilloise: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites at 70%, with Hapoel Beer Sheva on 12% and the draw on 18%. Union St. Gilloise are 12th and Hapoel Beer Sheva 25th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Union St. Gilloise won three and Hapoel Beer Sheva two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Union St. Gilloise win or draw
- 88%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw
- 30%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Union St. Gilloise and 0.9 from Hapoel Beer Sheva. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 3–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Union St. Gilloise: last 6
WDDWWW · 15 scored, 2 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Nijlen Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Real Sociedad | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Antwerp Jupiler Pro League | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Plzen | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDDWW
Hapoel Beer Sheva: last 6
WLDLWW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Hapoel Katamon Ligat Ha'al | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | at AZ Alkmaar | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Dinamo Zagreb | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | at Sabah FA UEFA Champions League | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs Sabah FA UEFA Champions League | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Aug | at FK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Champions League | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LLWL
Season stats
| Union St. Gilloise | Hapoel Beer Sheva | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| … | |||||
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutI. HurteventKnock
- OutO. KricfalusiKnock
- OutK. Mac AllisterKnee
Show 4 more
- OutR. SchoofsKnock
- OutA. ZorganeKnock
- OutA. Ait El HadjOff the roster
- OutI. PavlicOff the roster
- OutD. BitonHeart Problems
- OutLucas VenturaMuscle
- OutI. NachmiasInjury
Show 1 more
- OutY. StoyanovOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Union St. Gilloise 4Hapoel Beer Sheva 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Union St. Gilloise 3 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 2
- Referee
- Mikola Balakin
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
