Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dinamo Zagreb to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Dinamo's defensive record and home strength against NEC's leaky defence and winless run justify the published 66/19/15. The goals markets also align - 2+ goals at 84% and both teams to score at 57% fit the expected 2.3-1.0 shape.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersDinamo's defence at home meets an NEC side that concedes heavily away.
NEC have scored none away in this competition, though both teams scored in half of their matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureDinamo sit comfortably in the play-off places while NEC are already in the drop zone.
Dinamo's four points from two games leave them 14th, inside the knockout play-off places and four off the top eight. NEC's single point from two games has them 27th, in the eliminated zone, with a minus-five goal difference. Dinamo also have a day's extra rest and two games in 14 days against NEC's three.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 66% home number looks fair, though NEC's draw habit gives the away side a floor.
NEC have drawn four of their last six and held Ajax and Levski Sofia to 1-1, so they are not arriving empty. But away form reads D L L W L with 13 conceded, and the 0-5 loss at Juventus fits the published 15% away chance. I'd shade the draw up a touch and take two points off the home side.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Dinamo Zagreb are clear favourites at 66%, with NEC Nijmegen on 15% and the draw on 19%. Dinamo Zagreb are 14th and NEC Nijmegen 27th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Dinamo Zagreb won two and NEC Nijmegen none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dinamo Zagreb win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- NEC Nijmegen win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Dinamo Zagreb and 1.0 from NEC Nijmegen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 21% | 19% | Stats preview | #473 | |
| 2 | 63% | 20% | 17% | Prices moved | #543 | |
| 3 | 66% | 19% | 15% | Prices moved | #546 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dinamo Zagreb: last 6
WWDLDW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at NK Slaven Belupo HNL | 5–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Anderlecht | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Hapoel Beer Sheva | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Aug | at Viking UEFA Champions League | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Aug | vs Viking UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Aug | at Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Champions League | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDWW
NEC Nijmegen: last 6
DDDDLL · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Levski Sofia | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ajax Eredivisie | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | at Juventus | 0–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Cambuur Eredivisie | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLWL
Season stats
| Dinamo Zagreb | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 0.00 | Goals conceded per game | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 0% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 0% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 100% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | +0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | +0 | 3 | WLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. StojakovicFoot
- OutR. MudrazijaOff the roster
- OutI. NevisticOff the roster
Show 3 more
- OutN. NsokiOff the roster
- OutP. TabinasOff the roster
- OutF. TopicOff the roster
- Susp.A. ThomasSuspended
- OutE. MorGroin
- OutY. MoslihNot available
Show 6 more
- OutB. NuytinckAnkle
- OutP. SandlerInjury
- OutD. TadicCalf
- OutM. BakkerOff the roster
- OutI. Hansen-AaroenOff the roster
- OutA. TahauiOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Dinamo Zagreb 4NEC Nijmegen 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dinamo Zagreb 2 · NEC Nijmegen 3
- Referee
- Manfredas Lukjancukas
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
