Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Marseille to win: 52%, about 1 in 2

Sturm Graz22%Bookies 22

Draw26%Bookies 26

Marseille52%Bookies 52

Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✗ 1 goals

! Upset: we gave Sturm Graz 22% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Marseille are favourites at 52%, with Sturm Graz on 22% and the draw on 26%. Sturm Graz are 26th and Marseille 32nd in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Sturm Graz won one and Marseille two.

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Win or draw (double chance)

Sturm Graz win or draw: 48%
Either team wins (no draw): 74%
Marseille win or draw: 78%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 80%
3+ goals: 58%
4+ goals: 36%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 58%
No: 42%

We expect about 1.2 goals from Sturm Graz and 1.9 from Marseille. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 2–1 (6%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	21 Oct 17:48	26%	26%	48%	Stats preview	#466
2	22 Oct 15:46	22%	26%	52%	Prices moved	#553

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Sturm Graz: last 6

WLDLLW · 8 scored, 7 conceded

18 Oct	vs Grazer AK Bundesliga	6–1	W
15 Oct	at Bournemouth	0–3	L
16 Sep	vs Rennes	0–0	D
11 Aug	vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League	0–1	L
5 Aug	at Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League	0–2	L
28 Jul	at Heart Of Midlothian UEFA Champions League	2–0	W

Last 4 at home: WDLW

Marseille: last 6

WLWLLL · 9 scored, 10 conceded

18 Oct	at Angers Ligue 1	5–2	W
15 Oct	vs Olympiakos Piraeus	0–1	L
11 Oct	at Estac Troyes Ligue 1	2–0	W
20 Sep	vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1	1–2	L
17 Sep	at Beşiktaş	1–4	L
11 Sep	at Rennes Ligue 1	0–1	L

Last 5 away: WWLLL

Season stats

Sturm Graz		Marseille
0.00	Goals scored per game	0.50
1.50	Goals conceded per game	2.50
0.00	Scored per game at home	0.00
0.00	Scored per game away	1.00
50%	Matches over 2.5 goals	50%
0%	Both teams scored	50%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
100%	Failed to score	50%

League matches only, 2 games each.

Europa League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
16	Sparta Praha	3	+2	4	LDW
17	Levski Sofia	3	+0	4	WDL
18	Dinamo Zagreb	3	-1	4	LWD
19	Sturm Graz	3	-2	4	WLD
20	NEC Nijmegen	3	-3	4	WDL
21	Red Bull Salzburg	3	-3	4	DLW
22	Anderlecht	3	+1	3	WLL
…
31	Lillestrom	3	-7	1	LDL
32	Lech Poznan	3	-8	1	DLL
33	Plzen	3	-5	0	LLL
34	Marseille	3	-5	0	LLL
35	Celtic	3	-6	0	LLL
36	Ararat-Armenia	3	-9	0	LLL