Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Benfica to win: 73%, about 3 in 4

Omonia Nicosia11%Bookies 11

Draw16%Bookies 16

Benfica73%Bookies 73

Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 5 goals

✓ Favourite won (Benfica 73%) Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Benfica are clear favourites at 73%, with Omonia Nicosia on 11% and the draw on 16%. Omonia Nicosia are 10th and Benfica 6th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Omonia Nicosia won three and Benfica four.

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Win or draw (double chance)

Omonia Nicosia win or draw: 27%
Either team wins (no draw): 84%
Benfica win or draw: 89%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 83%
3+ goals: 62%
4+ goals: 39%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 50%
No: 50%

We expect about 0.8 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 2.4 from Benfica. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 0–2 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 0–3 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	21 Oct 20:09	11%	16%	73%	Stats preview	#502

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Omonia Nicosia: last 6

DWWWLW · 11 scored, 5 conceded

19 Oct	vs Olympiakos 1. Division	2–2	D
15 Oct	at Celje	3–0	W
16 Sep	vs Celta Vigo	1–0	W
27 Aug	vs St. Truiden	4–2	W
20 Aug	at St. Truiden	0–1	L
13 Aug	vs Lincoln Red Imps FC	1–0	W

Last 5 at home: DWWWW

Benfica: last 6

WWLWWW · 16 scored, 5 conceded

15 Oct	vs Celtic	4–1	W
11 Oct	vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga	2–0	W
20 Sep	at FC Porto Primeira Liga	1–3	L
16 Sep	at AC Milan	2–0	W
13 Sep	vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga	3–1	W
9 Sep	at Moreirense Primeira Liga	4–0	W

Last 5 away: LWWWW

Season stats

Omonia Nicosia		Benfica
1.67	Goals scored per game	3.12
0.67	Goals conceded per game	0.88
2.00	Scored per game at home	4.50
1.33	Scored per game away	1.75
33%	Matches over 2.5 goals	75%
33%	Both teams scored	75%
50%	Clean sheets	25%
17%	Failed to score	0%

League matches only, 6 and 8 games.

Europa League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
1	Benfica	3	+8	9	WWW
2	Bayer Leverkusen	3	+8	9	WWW
3	Bournemouth	3	+7	9	WWW
4	Ferencvarosi TC	3	+6	9	WWW
…
8	Beşiktaş	3	+4	7	DWW
9	Sunderland	3	+2	7	DWW
10	AZ Alkmaar	3	+4	6	WWL
11	Omonia Nicosia	3	+1	6	LWW
12	Lyon	3	-1	6	LWW
13	Rennes	3	+1	5	DWD
14	Real Sociedad	3	+5	4	WDL