Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
AZ Alkmaar to win: 69%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
The sceptic's only real doubt is whether Ararat's strong home run and AZ's away struggles make the visitors slightly less certain than 69% suggests.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Ararat-Armenia's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Ararat-Armenia favourites.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureArarat's zero points leave them desperate, while AZ sit comfortably in the play-off places.
Ararat are 34th with 0 points from 2 games and 2-7 goals, already outside the top 24. AZ are 20th on 3 points, inside the play-off spots. Both had 4 days' rest, though AZ played 3 games in 14 days to Ararat's 2.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 69% on AZ looks fair, but Ararat's home run gives them a little more than the market says.
Ararat have won 4 of their last 5 at home, scoring 8. AZ's away form reads D L L W W with 7 scored and 7 conceded, and they failed to score in 50% of their matches in this competition. A small nudge towards the draw and home win.
Ararat-Armenia: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites at 69%, with Ararat-Armenia on 13% and the draw on 18%. Ararat-Armenia are 34th and AZ Alkmaar 20th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Ararat-Armenia won two and AZ Alkmaar two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ararat-Armenia win or draw
- 31%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- AZ Alkmaar win or draw
- 87%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Ararat-Armenia and 2.4 from AZ Alkmaar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 0–3 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ararat-Armenia: last 6
WLLWDL · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | at BKMA Premier League | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Jagiellonia | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Sparta Praha | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Universitatea Craiova | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | at Universitatea Craiova | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Aug | at Celje UEFA Champions League | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
AZ Alkmaar: last 6
DWLWLD · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Cambuur Eredivisie | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Feyenoord Eredivisie | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Telstar Eredivisie | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Willem II Eredivisie | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLWW
Season stats
| Ararat-Armenia | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 4 and 2 games.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| … | |||||
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutZ. BanjaquiInjury
- OutP. AyongoOff the roster
- OutJ. ClasieKnock
- OutJ. HornkampInjury
- OutS. ResinkKnee
Show 1 more
- OutK. SmitInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Ararat-Armenia 4AZ Alkmaar 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ararat-Armenia 2 · AZ Alkmaar 3
- Referee
- Patrik Kolaric
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
