TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
TSG Hoffenheim to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
TSG Hoffenheim are favourites at 48%, with Lyon on 28% and the draw on 24%. TSG Hoffenheim are 31st and Lyon 11th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, TSG Hoffenheim won one and Lyon four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- TSG Hoffenheim win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Lyon win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.9 goals from TSG Hoffenheim and 1.4 from Lyon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 24% | 29% | Stats preview | #488 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
TSG Hoffenheim: last 6
WLLLLW · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Beşiktaş | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | at OFI | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: LLWL
Lyon: last 6
WWLWWD · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Nice Ligue 1 | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Lens Ligue 1 | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rennes Ligue 1 | 4–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Anderlecht | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Paris FC Ligue 1 | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDWD
Season stats
| TSG Hoffenheim | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.50 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| … | |||||
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | +0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: TSG Hoffenheim won 0, Lyon 0, 3 draws; 4.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2–2 | Lyon | UEFA Europa League |
| 7 Nov 2018 | Lyon | 2–2 | TSG Hoffenheim | UEFA Champions League |
| 23 Oct 2018 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3–3 | Lyon | UEFA Champions League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. De CatKnee
- OutA. HajdariFoot
- OutP. WimmerThigh
Show 1 more
- OutL. EngelnsOff the roster
- OutA. HamdaniNot available
- OutL. OpendaLeg
- OutM. OuedraogoKnee
Show 2 more
- OutP. SulcKnee
- OutN. TagliaficoMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- TSG Hoffenheim 4Lyon 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: TSG Hoffenheim 3 · Lyon 3
- Referee
- Halil Umut Meler
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
