Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Anderlecht to win: 43%, about 2 in 5

Jagiellonia31%Bookies 31

Draw26%Bookies 26

Anderlecht43%Bookies 43

Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 3 goals

✓ Favourite won (Anderlecht 43%) Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Anderlecht are slight favourites at 43%, with Jagiellonia on 31% and the draw on 26%. Jagiellonia are 20th and Anderlecht 29th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Jagiellonia won three and Anderlecht two.

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Win or draw (double chance)

Jagiellonia win or draw: 57%
Either team wins (no draw): 74%
Anderlecht win or draw: 69%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 78%
3+ goals: 54%
4+ goals: 32%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 57%
No: 43%

We expect about 1.3 goals from Jagiellonia and 1.6 from Anderlecht. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	21 Oct 20:09	31%	26%	43%	Stats preview	#501

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Jagiellonia: last 6

LWLWWD · 11 scored, 6 conceded

18 Oct	at Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa	0–1	L
15 Oct	vs Ararat-Armenia	3–1	W
16 Sep	at Olympiakos Piraeus	1–2	L
27 Aug	at FC Iberia 1999	2–1	W
20 Aug	vs FC Iberia 1999	4–0	W
13 Aug	at Rangers	1–1	D

Last 3 at home: WWW

Anderlecht: last 6

LLWWLW · 8 scored, 6 conceded

18 Oct	at Beerschot VA Cup	1–2	L
15 Oct	at Dinamo Zagreb	0–1	L
10 Oct	at Cercle Brugge Jupiler Pro League	2–1	W
19 Sep	vs Zulte Waregem Jupiler Pro League	3–0	W
16 Sep	vs Lyon	1–2	L
11 Sep	at KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League	1–0	W

Last 5 away: LLWWL

Season stats

Jagiellonia		Anderlecht
2.17	Goals scored per game	1.88
1.00	Goals conceded per game	0.88
3.00	Scored per game at home	2.50
1.33	Scored per game away	1.25
83%	Matches over 2.5 goals	62%
83%	Both teams scored	50%
17%	Clean sheets	38%
0%	Failed to score	12%

League matches only, 6 and 8 games.

Europa League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
19	Sturm Graz	3	-2	4	WLD
20	NEC Nijmegen	3	-3	4	WDL
21	Red Bull Salzburg	3	-3	4	DLW
22	Anderlecht	3	+1	3	WLL
23	1899 Hoffenheim	3	+0	3	WLL
24	AC Milan	3	-1	3	LWL
25	Celta Vigo	3	-1	3	WLL
26	OFI	3	-1	3	LLW
27	Jagiellonia	3	-2	3	LWL
28	Torreense	3	-3	3	LLW
29	Celje	3	-5	1	DLL
30	Hapoel Beer Sheva	3	-5	1	LLD