Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Sociedad to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
The coach and sceptic both see goals at both ends given Sociedad's defensive record, while the dressing room notes both sides are under pressure on one point. A competitive game with Sociedad favourites is the consistent picture.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Lillestrom's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Lillestrom favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSociedad's leaky defence keeps this open, but their attack should decide it.
That points to goals at both ends, with Sociedad's stronger attack likely making the difference.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides sit on one point and need a win to stay in the knockout race.
These teams are 22nd and 23rd, each with one point from two games, just inside the play-off places but adrift of the top eight. Sociedad have played three games in 14 days to Lillestrom's two, which may temper their legs late on.
Lillestrom: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrong68% for Sociedad looks slightly generous given their away record.
Sociedad concede 11 in their last five away, so a smaller away edge seems fairer than the published numbers suggest.
Lillestrom: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Real Sociedad are clear favourites at 68%, with Lillestrom on 13% and the draw on 19%. Lillestrom are 25th and Real Sociedad 24th in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Lillestrom won two and Real Sociedad three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lillestrom win or draw
- 32%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Real Sociedad win or draw
- 86%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Lillestrom and 2.3 from Real Sociedad. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 0–3 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lillestrom: last 5
WDLWD · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Sandefjord Eliteserien | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Sparta Praha | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Torreense | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Aug | at Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0–0 | D |
Last 2 at home: LW
Real Sociedad: last 6
WDWWLL · 13 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Malaga La Liga | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Union St. Gilloise | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Valencia La Liga | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Bournemouth | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Atletico Madrid La Liga | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDWWL
Season stats
| Lillestrom | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 4 and 2 games.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | +0 | 4 | WDL |
| … | |||||
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. B. GarnasKnee
- OutC. JebaraInjury
- OutJ. AramburuLeg
- OutL. BeitiaAnkle
- OutY. HerreraCalf
Show 1 more
- OutA. OdriozolaKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Lillestrom 4Real Sociedad 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lillestrom 2 · Real Sociedad 3
- Referee
- Mohammad Al-Emara
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
