Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Red Bull Salzburg to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Salzburg stronger, Celje struggling for points and goals, though the sceptic sees a small cushion. The published numbers - Celje 15%, draw 20%, Salzburg 65% - look broadly fair, with perhaps a shade more draw.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Celje are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSalzburg's attacking output should again expose a Celje side that cannot score
Celje have failed to score in every match of this competition and are 100% to have drawn a blank, while Red Bull Salzburg average 1.50 scored and hold clean sheets in 67% of their games.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides badly need points, but only Salzburg still have a route to the top 24
Celje sit 35th with 0 points from 2 games and are already in the eliminated zone, three places from the bottom, with just one goal scored and five conceded. Salzburg are 21st on 3 points, two wins from the top 24, so the stakes point one way.
Celje: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 65% on Salzburg may be a touch high given recent wobbles
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Red Bull Salzburg are clear favourites at 65%, with Celje on 15% and the draw on 20%. Celje are 35th and Red Bull Salzburg 23rd in the Europa League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Celje won none and Red Bull Salzburg four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Celje win or draw
- 35%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Red Bull Salzburg win or draw
- 85%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Celje and 2.2 from Red Bull Salzburg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 0–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Celje: last 6
DLLLDW · 4 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Maribor 1. SNL | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Omonia Nicosia | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Aug | at Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Aug | vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Champions League | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: LLWD
Red Bull Salzburg: last 6
WLWWWD · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs SCR Altach Bundesliga | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs AC Milan | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Levski Sofia | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | vs Mjallby AIF | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | at Mjallby AIF | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Aug | at Pafos | 3–3 | D |
Last 3 away: WWD
Season stats
| Celje | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 0% | Both teams scored | 17% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 100% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 2 and 6 games.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | +0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| … | |||||
| 26 | OFI | 3 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. PisekKnee
- OutE. AguilarMuscle
- OutJ. OmoregieAchilles Tendon
- OutN. VeratschnigKnee
Show 3 more
- OutA. ChaseOff the roster
- OutF. MatijasevicOff the roster
- OutJ. MoserOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Celje 4Red Bull Salzburg 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Celje 2 · Red Bull Salzburg 2
- Referee
- John Brooks
- 5.4 yellow cards per game and 0.60 penalties per game over 5 games — above the Europa League average (3.0 yellows).
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
