Besiktas vs Crystal Palace prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Besiktas to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
The Verdict
Our numbers shifted slightly toward Beşiktaş, increasing the home probability by 1 point and decreasing the away probability by 1 point. We did not follow The Sceptic's suggested 2-point shift, as the overall shift was less pronounced.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Besiktas's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBeşiktaş near full strength; Palace missing Timber (reported out, not confirmed by the club) with Henderson doubtful.
Beşiktaş are close to full strength: only Rashica is out and Kökçü has recovered from muscle fatigue. Palace miss Quinten Timber (reported out, not confirmed by the club), while Henderson's fitness is still being assessed. Their reshuffled back three faces a Beşiktaş attack featuring Vlahović and Trossard.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBeşiktaş's perfect European run meets a Palace side reeling from heavy defeats and pressure on Sage.
Beşiktaş sit 4th in the league phase with a perfect European record after beating Marseille and Hoffenheim. Palace have won just two of their last 11 away games and come off heavy defeats to Brighton and Lyon, with Sage's future under scrutiny.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPalace's away slump and defensive woes may be slightly underpriced for a Beşiktaş home win.
The market makes Beşiktaş modest favourites at home; the away slump is the angle the price may not fully capture.
Besiktas: clearly underrated
Med✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Beşiktaş hosts Crystal Palace in a high-stakes Europa League match. Beşiktaş enters with a perfect European record, while Palace faces intense scrutiny after recent heavy defeats. The match pits Beşiktaş's attacking energy against Palace's defensive fragility.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Besiktas win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Crystal Palace win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Besiktas and 1.3 from Crystal Palace. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 43% | 25% | 32% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 49% | 26% | 25% | 61% |
| Our forecast | 44% | 25% | 31% | – |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain close to the market, reflecting the balance between Beşiktaş's strong European form and Palace's significant away struggles. The slight shift reflects a marginal increase in confidence in the home side.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 24% | 29% | Stats preview | #497 | |
| 2 | 45% | 24% | 31% | Prices moved | #524 | |
| 3 | 46% | 24% | 30% | Full analysis | #537 | |
| 4 | 44% | 25% | 31% | Official lineups | #605 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Besiktas: last 6
LWWLWW · 14 scored, 9 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Trabzonspor Süper Lig | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Amed Süper Lig | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Marseille | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Crystal Palace: last 6
LLWDWL · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Brighton Premier League | 0–5 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Lyon | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest Premier League | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Leeds Premier League | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Lech Poznan | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Ipswich Premier League | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Besiktas | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 3.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 4.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 and 2 games.
Europa League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Besiktas | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | +0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Nübel
Defenders
- 22Taylan Bulut
- 35Tiago Djaló
- 50Ü. Akdağ
- 11K. Ouattara
Midfielders
- 4W. Ndidi
- 29I. Fakili
- 21F. Miretti
- 8K. Yılmaz
- 19L. Trossard
Forward
- 9Oh Hyeon-Gyu
Substitutes (12)
- 80D. Alemdar
- 90S. Kılıçsoy
- 62A. Murillo
- 15J. Olaitan
- 17E. Poku
- 53E. Topçu
- 28D. Vlahović
- 33R. Yılmaz
- 58Y. Özcan
- 6S. Özcan
- 18V. Černý
- 12E. Agbadou
Goalkeeper
- 44W. Benítez
Defenders
- 26C. Richards
- 5A. Disasi
- 6J. Canvot
Midfielders
- 25A. Khalaili
- 20A. Wharton
- 18D. Kamada
- 3T. Mitchell
- 11D. McNeil
- 10Yeremy Pino
Forward
- 14J. Mateta
Substitutes (12)
- 54D. Benamar
- 81Lucca Benetton
- 33B. Chilwell
- 19W. Hughes
- 22J. Strand Larsen
- 31R. Matthews
- 30Óscar Mingueza
- 9E. Nketiah
- 24D. Osorio
- 7I. Sarr
- 21H. Ahanor
- 37G. King
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. KokcuFoot
- OutM. RashicaMuscle
- OutC. KelesOff the roster
- OutD. HendersonFoot
- OutC. RiadKnee
- OutQ. TimberInjury
Show 5 more
- OutT. TomiyasuCalf
- OutC. DoucoureOff the roster
- OutZ. GozoOff the roster
- OutE. GuessandOff the roster
- OutJ. LermaOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Beşiktaş holds a 100% record in the Europa League league phase, having scored in both matches.[1][3][4]
- Crystal Palace's recent form is poor, including a 5-0 loss to Brighton.[1][6]
- Palace has won only two of their last 11 away games across all competitions.[3]
- Beşiktaş is currently ranked 4th in the 36-team League Phase standings.[3][4]
- The manager of Crystal Palace, Pierre Sage, is facing intense scrutiny following recent defeats.[6]
- Beşiktaş suffered a 2-0 domestic loss to Trabzonspor last weekend.[3][4]
Sources
- readcrystalpalace.com – Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: Pierre Sage on European Defensive Fixes - Read Crystal Palace (2026-10-22)
- turkish-football.com – Beşiktaş vs. Crystal Palace: Vincenzo Italiano Reveals Orkun Kökçü Injury Status - turkish football (2026-10-22)
- turkish-football.com – Beşiktaş vs. Crystal Palace: Tactical Preview, Team News, and European Stakes - turkish football (2026-10-22)
- roundtable.io – Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: Preview, Team News And Expected Lineups - roundtable.io (2026-10-22)
- uk.sports.yahoo.com – Pierre Sage claims Palace must “switch quickly” ahead of Beşiktaş test - Yahoo (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – Crystal Palace urged to retire bald eagle mascot (2026-10-21)
Off the pitch
- An animal rights group is calling for the club to retire its live bald eagle mascot.[8]
Match context
- Rest days
- Besiktas 3Crystal Palace 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Besiktas 3 · Crystal Palace 3
- Referee
- Danny Makkelie
- Coaches
- P. Sage
- Crystal Palace, since Jul 2026
- Goals in this league
- Europa League average: 3.23 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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