Carrarese vs Arezzo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Carrarese to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings settle near the published prices, with Carrarese favoured at around 43-46% and Arezzo no better than 28% despite their away wins.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Carrarese's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to chances at both ends, but neither attacks freely.
Both sides fail to score in 38% of games, yet both-teams-score sits at 50%, so chances flow both ways in a likely open game.
Carrarese: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureNeither side has momentum, and the visitors' away record is quietly decent.
Carrarese are 16th with 7 points from 8, Arezzo 10th on 10, so little separates them. Carrarese have lost four of their last six while Arezzo's away form reads W W L W L, better than most. Both had two games in 14 days, Carrarese with one fewer rest day.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe total line looks slightly low given Arezzo's defensive record.
Arezzo's 75% over-2.5 rate and 2.12 conceded per game clash with a 47% total line. But head-to-heads average 3.5 goals across six meetings, including Carrarese 2-3 Arezzo in 2024, and Arezzo have conceded 8 in their last 5 away. The home 43% looks fair given Carrarese's 0.75 scored per game at home.
Carrarese: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Carrarese are slight favourites at 43%, with Arezzo on 28% and the draw on 29%. Carrarese are 16th and Arezzo 10th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Carrarese won two and Arezzo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Carrarese win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Arezzo win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Carrarese and 1.1 from Arezzo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 29% | 28% | Stats preview | #1742 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Carrarese: last 6
LWWLLL · 5 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Palermo | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Modena | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Padova | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: WLLL
Arezzo: last 6
LWDLWL · 4 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Benevento | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Hellas Verona | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLWL
Season stats
| Carrarese | Arezzo | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 2.12 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Carrarese won 2, Arezzo 2, 2 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2024 | Carrarese | 2–3 | Arezzo | Serie C - Girone B |
| 9 Sep 2023 | Arezzo | 1–3 | Carrarese | Serie C - Girone B |
| 17 Nov 2019 | Carrarese | 2–2 | Arezzo | Serie C - Girone A |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Carrarese | 3–0 | Arezzo | Serie C - Girone A |
| 19 Nov 2018 | Arezzo | 2–2 | Carrarese | Serie C - Girone A |
| 5 May 2018 | Carrarese | 0–1 | Arezzo | Serie C |
Match context
- Travel for Arezzo
- 158 km
- Rest days
- Carrarese 3Arezzo 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Carrarese 2 · Arezzo 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Maco Di Loreto
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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