Ascoli vs Sampdoria prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ascoli to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic's head-to-head point tempers the dressing room's form case, while the coach sees goals both ways. The over sits right at the published 50%, perhaps a shade higher on goals-per-game evidence.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Ascoli are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Sampdoria are underrated.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth hosts nineteenth with form and points gaps stark
Ascoli sit 4th with 15 points from 8 games and one league defeat; Sampdoria are 19th with just 5 points and five losses. Both had 3 days' rest.
Ascoli: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history questions Ascoli's market favouritism
The last three head-to-heads: one Sampdoria win, two draws, 3.0 goals per game - Ascoli never won. Sampdoria's 62% over-2.5 rate and 3.0 goals per H2H average nudge me over, while 45% for Ascoli looks slightly generous given no recent win in this fixture.
Sampdoria: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Ascoli are favourites at 45%, with Sampdoria on 26% and the draw on 29%. Ascoli are 4th and Sampdoria 19th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Ascoli won two and Sampdoria one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ascoli win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Sampdoria win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Ascoli and 1.1 from Sampdoria. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 29% | 26% | Stats preview | #1598 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ascoli: last 6
WDDWLW · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Catanzaro | 6–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Empoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Sudtirol | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Sampdoria: last 6
DLLWLL · 6 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Avellino | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Palermo | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLD
Season stats
| Ascoli | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ascoli won 0, Sampdoria 1, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2024 | Sampdoria | 2–1 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Ascoli | 1–1 | Sampdoria | Serie B |
| 20 Oct 2022 | Sampdoria | 2–2 | Ascoli | Coppa Italia |
Match context
- Travel for Sampdoria
- 410 km
- Rest days
- Ascoli 3Sampdoria 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ascoli 2 · Sampdoria 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Marco Di Bello
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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