Pisa vs Palermo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Pisa 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three land close together: the league leaders carry real weight, but Pisa's home results and an open head-to-head history keep the home side firmly in the conversation. The published 37-30-32 split and a 55% lean to over 2.5 goals match the data well; nobody sees a strong reason to move far from either number.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely and concede regularly - an open game looks the natural read.
Pisa average 1.50 scored at home but concede 1.25 a game overall; Palermo average 2.50 away and have failed to score in none of their matches. Both-teams-scored rates are high (62% and 75%), and both keep clean sheets only 25% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten Palermo arrive on top with momentum, but a rest-equal week keeps Pisa in the fight.
Palermo lead the table with 22 points from 8 games, W7 D1 L0, while Pisa sit 6th on 14. Both had 3 days' rest and two games in 14 days, so fixture load is even. Pisa's last six include three wins in four Serie B matches; Palermo have won five straight.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPalermo's form justifies the price, but Pisa's home record and head-to-head argue for a closer match.
Pisa's 3-1 home win and a 4-3 thriller in the last two head-to-head meetings hint the home 37% is not too high. The 55% over line could even be a shade conservative.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Pisa are slight favourites at 38%, with Palermo on 32% and the draw on 30%. Pisa are 6th and Palermo 1st in Serie B. In their last five league games, Pisa won two and Palermo four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Pisa win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Palermo win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Pisa and 1.4 from Palermo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 30% | 32% | Stats preview | #1735 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Pisa: last 6
DWWDLL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Cremonese | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Vicenza Virtus | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Mantova | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Fiorentina Coppa Italia | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWLD
Palermo: last 6
WWWWDW · 14 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Mantova | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Empoli | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
Last 4 away: WWDW
Season stats
| Pisa | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game away | 2.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Pisa won 3, Palermo 1, 2 draws; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Palermo | 1–2 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Pisa | 2–0 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Pisa | 4–3 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Palermo | 3–2 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 4 Mar 2023 | Pisa | 1–1 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Palermo | 3–3 | Pisa | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Pisa 3Palermo 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Pisa 2 · Palermo 2
- Referee
- Daniele Chiffi
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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