Sudtirol vs Cesena prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sudtirol to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The combined analysis points towards a tight contest where Sudtirol's home advantage and Cesena's defensive frailties are key factors. The high goals-per-match average in this competition, coupled with the strong scoring rates, suggests a greater likelihood of goals than the market implies.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Sudtirol are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Cesena are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSudtirol's strong home record and Cesena's defensive struggles away from home suggest a competitive match.
Sudtirol has scored 5 goals and conceded only 2 in their last 5 home fixtures. Cesena's season stats show they concede 1.50 goals per game, while Sudtirol scores 1.25 goals per game at home.
Sudtirol: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSudtirol's mid-table standing offers a stable platform against a struggling Cesena side.
Sudtirol sits 7th in the table with 13 points from 8 games. Cesena is 15th with 8 points from 8 games. Both teams have 7 days of rest ahead of this fixture.
Cesena: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating Cesena's poor away form, which has seen them concede many goals.
Cesena has conceded 10 goals in their last 5 away matches, scoring only 3. The season record shows both teams score in 75% of matches, indicating high-scoring potential.
Cesena: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sudtirol are slight favourites at 43%, with Cesena on 29% and the draw on 28%. Sudtirol are 7th and Cesena 15th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Sudtirol won one and Cesena none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sudtirol win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Cesena win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sudtirol and 1.1 from Cesena. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 28% | 29% | Stats preview | #1828 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sudtirol: last 6
DLDWLD · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Juve Stabia | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Ascoli | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Genoa Coppa Italia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDWW
Cesena: last 6
LDLDDD · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Benevento | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Sudtirol | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
Match context
- Travel for Cesena
- 270 km
- Rest days
- Sudtirol 7Cesena 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sudtirol 2 · Cesena 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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