Modena vs Mantova prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Modena to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, the coach sees support for the over while the sceptic trims it slightly, landing around the published 56% for more than 2.5 goals.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Mantova's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Mantova favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides point to goals at the Braglia
Modena score 2.00 per game at home and both sides concede 1.00 per game, with both-teams-score at 62% for each.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond versus third with a point in it - a genuine top-of-table test
Mantova sit 2nd on 17 points from 8 games, Modena 3rd on 16, so one point separates them. Modena have won three straight at home in the league run of W W W L, while Mantova arrive off a 1-0 win at Virtus Entella. Both had 7 days' rest, though Mantova played twice in 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome lean looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high
Modena's 56% is backed by home form of W W W L and 1.9 expected goals, yet they lost their last away trip and have two league defeats. Mantova's away record of W W D L W with 9 scored and 8 conceded keeps them live. With Mantova over 2.5 in only 50% of matches, 56% on goals looks slightly generous.
Mantova: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Modena are favourites at 56%, with Mantova on 20% and the draw on 24%. Modena are 3rd and Mantova 2nd in Serie B. In their last five league games, Modena won three and Mantova three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Modena win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Mantova win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Modena and 1.0 from Mantova. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 24% | 20% | Stats preview | #1829 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Modena: last 6
WLWWDL · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Cesena | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Carrarese | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Hellas Verona | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: WWWL
Mantova: last 6
WLWDWD · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Palermo | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Catanzaro | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Cesena | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WWDLW
Season stats
| Modena | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Modena 7Mantova 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Modena 1 · Mantova 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
