Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sampdoria to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Sampdoria's 45% home probability looks slightly generous given one win in six and 16 goals conceded, with Entella's solid away form justifying a bigger away chance. The over 2.5 line at 44% sits comfortably within everyone's reading, so the published numbers broadly hold up, with only the 1X2 split worth questioning.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Virtus Entella's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Virtus Entella favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSampdoria's leaky defence meets Entella's stronger away scoring - goals look likely.
Sampdoria concede 2.00 per game with 0% clean sheets and both teams scored in 88% of their matches. Entella average 1.50 away and have scored in five straight on the road. Both sides' over-2.5 rates (62% and 50%) support a game with chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureNineteenth-placed Sampdoria need a response, but Entella arrive steadier.
Equal rest of 7 days each, but Entella have played one fewer game in the last fortnight. Pressure is firmly on the home side.
Virtus Entella: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks generous given Sampdoria's form, but the total line looks fair.
Sampdoria have lost five of six and conceded 16 in 8 games, yet are priced at 45% - that seems too high. Entella's away record (W D W L D, 8 scored, 5 conceded) argues for a bigger away chance than 27%. The 44% over line matches the 3+ goals rate and looks about right.
Virtus Entella: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sampdoria are favourites at 45%, with Virtus Entella on 27% and the draw on 28%. Sampdoria are 19th and Virtus Entella 12th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Sampdoria won one and Virtus Entella two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sampdoria win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Virtus Entella win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sampdoria and 1.0 from Virtus Entella. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% | 24% | 50% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1899 | |
| 2 | 45% | 28% | 27% | Prices moved | #2131 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sampdoria: last 6
DLLWLL · 6 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Avellino | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Palermo | 1–3 | L |
Last 3 at home: LWL
Virtus Entella: last 6
LWDDWD · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Mantova | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WDWLD
Season stats
| Sampdoria | Virtus Entella | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Virtus Entella
- 31 km
- Rest days
- Sampdoria 7Virtus Entella 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sampdoria 2 · Virtus Entella 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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