Hellas Verona vs Carrarese prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Hellas Verona to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Hellas Verona are clear favourites at 65%, with Carrarese on 14% and the draw on 21%. Hellas Verona are 11th and Carrarese 16th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Hellas Verona won one and Carrarese two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Hellas Verona win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Carrarese win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Hellas Verona and 0.8 from Carrarese. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 26% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1804 | |
| 2 | 66% | 21% | 14% | Prices moved | #2182 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Hellas Verona: last 6
DDLWLW · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Pisa | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Catanzaro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Modena | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Benevento | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Arezzo | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWL
Carrarese: last 6
LWWLLL · 5 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Palermo | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Modena | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Padova | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLDL
Season stats
| Hellas Verona | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 0.88 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
Match context
- Travel for Carrarese
- 166 km
- Rest days
- Hellas Verona 7Carrarese 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Hellas Verona 1 · Carrarese 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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