Arezzo vs Ascoli prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Ascoli 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Ascoli's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAscoli's away scoring meets Arezzo's leaky defence in a game that should produce chances.
Ascoli concede just 0.75 per game, so the hosts' 0.75 home scoring rate looks thin. Both teams scored in 62% of Ascoli's matches.
Ascoli: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAscoli arrive fourth and in form; Arezzo's heavy defeats point to a confidence problem.
Ascoli sit 4th with 15 points from 8 games; Arezzo are 10th on 10 points and have lost three of their last six, including 0-3 and 0-5. Both had 7 days' rest, but Ascoli played once in 14 days versus Arezzo's twice. The gap in points and momentum shapes this one.
Ascoli: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's 44% for over 2.5 looks too low given Arezzo's matches.
Arezzo's games go over 2.5 goals 75% of the time and they concede 2.12 per game, yet the published over sits at 44% with expected goals of just 1.2 and 1.3. Ascoli's 38% over rate tempers it, but the blend leans higher. The 1X2 prices look broadly fair.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ascoli are slight favourites at 37%, with Arezzo on 35% and the draw on 28%. Arezzo are 10th and Ascoli 4th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Arezzo won two and Ascoli two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arezzo win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Ascoli win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Arezzo and 1.3 from Ascoli. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% | 21% | 62% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1803 | |
| 2 | 35% | 28% | 37% | Prices moved | #2181 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arezzo: last 6
LWDLWL · 4 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Benevento | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Hellas Verona | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLLW
Ascoli: last 6
WDDWLW · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Catanzaro | 6–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Empoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Sudtirol | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLWL
Season stats
| Arezzo | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 2.12 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Ascoli
- 153 km
- Rest days
- Arezzo 7Ascoli 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arezzo 2 · Ascoli 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 21 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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