Empoli vs Juve Stabia prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Empoli to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Empoli's home price of 40% looks a touch high given five defeats in eight and three straight home losses, while Juve Stabia's five-match unbeaten run supports a nudge towards the away side.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Juve Stabia's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Juve Stabia favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo modest attacks and a leaky Empoli defence point to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Empoli concede 1.62 per game and have lost three straight home games, while Juve Stabia concede just 1.00 per game. Both sides sit at 38% over 2.5 and 50% both-teams-score this season, so a 1-1-type scoreline feels live.
Empoli: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEmpoli's five defeats in eight games make home pressure the story here.
Empoli sit 17th with 7 points from 8 games and one win in their last six, while Juve Stabia arrive on 8 points in 14th, unbeaten in five. Equal rest of 8 days each, so the table gap is psychological, not physical.
Juve Stabia: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongJuve Stabia's away form of W D D W L and 1.33 goals per home-game equivalent scoring rate suggest the 32% away number is too low.
Juve Stabia: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Empoli are slight favourites at 40%, with Juve Stabia on 32% and the draw on 28%. Empoli are 17th and Juve Stabia 14th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Empoli won none and Juve Stabia two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Empoli win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Juve Stabia win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Empoli and 1.2 from Juve Stabia. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 27% | 45% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2060 | |
| 2 | 40% | 28% | 32% | Prices moved | #2233 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Empoli: last 6
LDLLLW · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Vicenza Virtus | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Palermo | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: LLLW
Juve Stabia: last 6
WWDDDL · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sudtirol | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Virtus Entella | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Vicenza Virtus | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDDWL
Season stats
| Empoli | Juve Stabia | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Juve Stabia
- 444 km
- Rest days
- Empoli 8Juve Stabia 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Empoli 1 · Juve Stabia 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 18 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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