US Avellino vs Pisa prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Pisa to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Pisa's away scoring and the promotion-gap pressure make the visitors the modest favourite, with goals likely but not guaranteed.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Pisa the sharper away side
Pisa also run at 75% over 2.5. Both teams score in 50% of the modelled matches, so a 1-2 type scoreline fits the shape of the data.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSixth against eighth with momentum questions on both sides
Two points separate these mid-table sides, but Pisa's away record (9 scored, 6 conceded in five) travels well. Avellino's one win in six came against Sampdoria, and they've had the longer break at 8 days. With 15-10 vs 12-9 goal records, expect an open game.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPisa deserve favouritism, but the away numbers may be a touch flattered
Pisa's 2.25 goals per game away stands out, yet it came against softer tests than Avellino's home venues. Their last six include a 1-4 home defeat and a 3-0 Coppa exit, and BTTS is just 50% in the numbers.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Pisa are slight favourites at 42%, with US Avellino on 30% and the draw on 28%. US Avellino are 8th and Pisa 6th in Serie B. In their last five league games, US Avellino won one and Pisa two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- US Avellino win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Pisa win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.1 goals from US Avellino and 1.4 from Pisa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 25% | 39% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2088 | |
| 2 | 30% | 28% | 42% | Prices moved | #2237 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
US Avellino: last 6
LDWLDW · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Modena | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWDWL
Pisa: last 6
DWWDLL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Cremonese | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Vicenza Virtus | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Mantova | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Fiorentina Coppa Italia | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: DWDLW
Season stats
| US Avellino | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.88 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.25 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | US Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
Match context
- Travel for Pisa
- 475 km
- Rest days
- US Avellino 8Pisa 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: US Avellino 2 · Pisa 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 20 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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