Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Palermo to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a dominant, unbeaten league leader at home against a side conceding nearly two a game. The 1X2 numbers look well judged at 62/20/18.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop of the table, unbeaten, at home against a mid-table side - Palermo should control this.
Palermo sit 1st with 22 points from 8 games, W7 D1 L0, and have won all of their last five at home, scoring 13. Vicenza are 13th on 9 points. Palermo also had 7 days rest versus 9, though Vicenza face an 839 km trip in mild, calm conditions.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers broadly match the data, though the over may be a touch high.
Palermo at 62% fits an unbeaten side winning five straight at home. But the over 2.5 at 65% leans on Vicenza's 75% over rate, built partly on conceding 1.88 per game; Palermo's own over rate is 62% and the league averages 2.7 goals. I'd shade the over slightly down, keeping the 1X2 as published.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Palermo are clear favourites at 62%, with Vicenza Virtus on 18% and the draw on 20%. Palermo are 1st and Vicenza Virtus 13th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Palermo won four and Vicenza Virtus one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Palermo win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Vicenza Virtus win or draw
- 38%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Palermo and 1.1 from Vicenza Virtus. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 20% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1805 | |
| 2 | 62% | 20% | 18% | Prices moved | #2183 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Palermo: last 6
WWWWDW · 14 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Mantova | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Empoli | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Vicenza Virtus: last 6
WDLLDD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Empoli | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Benevento | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Hellas Verona | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WDLDL
Season stats
| Palermo | Vicenza Virtus | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Vicenza Virtus
- 839 km
- Rest days
- Palermo 7Vicenza Virtus 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Palermo 1 · Vicenza Virtus 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 5 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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