Cremonese vs Benevento prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cremonese to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards land close to the published numbers, with the Sceptic and Dressing Room shading slightly toward Benevento given their form and table position. The Coach's reading of Cremonese's poor scoring record leans under, while season over-rates of 50% for both sides keep the total near the 53% line. A home win remains the central scenario.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Benevento's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Benevento favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCremonese's scoring drought meets a Benevento side hard to break down
Cremonese have failed to score in 62% of their league games, while Benevento concede just 0.88 per game with 38% clean sheets. Benevento score 1.80 per game at home but 1.33 away, and 50% of their matches go over 2.5. That points to a low-scoring home side against a selective visitor.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFifth hosts eighteenth, and the table gap is hard to ignore
Cremonese are 18th with 6 points from 8 games, one win and four defeats, while Benevento sit 5th on 14 points from 4 wins and 2 draws. Benevento have lost just once in their last six and arrive with six days' rest versus Cremonese's seven, so the gap in form and table looks real.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome pricing looks a touch generous given recent form
The prices give Cremonese 49% despite four defeats in six and five goals conceded in their last five home games. Benevento have won three of their last four away matches.
Benevento: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Cremonese are favourites at 50%, with Benevento on 25% and the draw on 25%. Cremonese are 18th and Benevento 5th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Cremonese won none and Benevento four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cremonese win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Benevento win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Cremonese and 1.1 from Benevento. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 25% | 25% | Stats preview | #1830 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cremonese: last 6
LLDDDW · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Juve Stabia | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Pisa | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Arezzo | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Virtus Entella | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Cesena | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Padova | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWLW
Benevento: last 6
WDWWWL · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Arezzo | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Cesena | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hellas Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: WWLL
Season stats
| Cremonese | Benevento | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 62% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Benevento
- 588 km
- Rest days
- Cremonese 7Benevento 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cremonese 2 · Benevento 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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