Catanzaro vs Padova prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Catanzaro to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The main divergence is on goals: the sceptic sees the 52% over line as too low given Catanzaro's 75% over rate and 2.50 conceded per game, so the consensus tilts modestly towards a 2-1-style home win with goals at both ends.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Padova's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Padova favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCatanzaro's leaky defence meets Padova's blunt attack - goals look likely both ends.
Padova score only 0.88 per game but have failed to score just 12% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBottom-side Catanzaro are desperate, but Padova's steadier season gives them belief.
Catanzaro sit 20th with 4 points from 8 games (W1 D1 L6) and have lost five of their last six. Padova are 9th on 10 points and won their last match 1-0 at Avellino. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal; pressure is all on the hosts.
Catanzaro: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating how open Catanzaro's matches run.
Catanzaro's games go over 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams scored in 75%, yet the total line is priced at only 52%. Their 1-6 loss to Ascoli and 2-2 at Hellas Verona support a higher-scoring read. The 47% home price still looks reasonable given one win in six.
Padova: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Catanzaro are favourites at 47%, with Padova on 27% and the draw on 26%. Catanzaro are 20th and Padova 9th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Catanzaro won one and Padova two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Catanzaro win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Padova win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Catanzaro and 1.2 from Padova. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 24% | 48% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1879 | |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 27% | Prices moved | #2126 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Catanzaro: last 6
LDLLWL · 6 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Ascoli | 1–6 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Hellas Verona | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLWD
Padova: last 6
WLLLWL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Avellino | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Virtus Entella | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Carrarese | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Palermo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLWL
Season stats
| Catanzaro | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 0.88 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Padova
- 761 km
- Rest days
- Catanzaro 7Padova 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Catanzaro 1 · Padova 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
