Cesena vs Empoli prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cesena to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight contest where Cesena's home advantage is the primary factor, but both teams are defensively vulnerable. The recent history and current form indicate a high probability of goals, aligning with the market's over 2.5 goals probability.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Empoli's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Empoli favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCesena's home attacking output is slightly superior to Empoli's away defensive record.
Cesena scores 1.25 goals per game at home but concedes 1.50. Empoli concedes 1.62 goals per game overall. Cesena's overall goals scored per game (1.00) is higher than Empoli's (0.88).
Empoli: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are firmly in the lower half of the table and are under pressure to improve their form.
Cesena sits 15th in the table with 8 points from 8 games. Empoli is 17th with 7 points from 8 games. Cesena has 3 days rest, while Empoli has 4 days rest.
Empoli: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the high-scoring nature of the recent head-to-head encounters.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, there were 3.5 goals per game. Cesena's recent home form shows 4 consecutive draws or losses with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded.
Empoli: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Cesena are favourites at 48%, with Empoli on 23% and the draw on 29%. Cesena are 15th and Empoli 17th in Serie B. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cesena win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Empoli win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Cesena and 1.0 from Empoli. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 27% | 26% | Stats preview | #1599 | |
| 2 | 44% | 28% | 28% | Prices moved | #1642 | |
| 3 | 45% | 29% | 26% | Prices moved | #1654 | |
| 4 | 48% | 29% | 23% | Prices moved | #2250 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cesena: last 6
LDLDDD · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Benevento | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: DDDD
Empoli: last 6
LDLLLW · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Vicenza Virtus | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Palermo | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWLD
Season stats
| Cesena | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.88 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cesena won 1, Empoli 4, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Empoli | 1–1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Cesena | 0–1 | Empoli | Serie B |
| 17 Apr 2018 | Cesena | 2–3 | Empoli | Serie B |
| 18 Nov 2017 | Empoli | 5–3 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 29 Nov 2016 | Empoli | 1–2 | Cesena | Coppa Italia |
| 8 Feb 2015 | Empoli | 2–0 | Cesena | Serie A |
Match context
- Travel for Empoli
- 113 km
- Rest days
- Cesena 3Empoli 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cesena 2 · Empoli 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Mario Perri
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
