Palermo vs Carrarese prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Palermo to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
On goals there is mild scepticism: the published 49% for over 2.5 sits at the top of our range, with Carrarese's low away scoring and the 2.2-goal head-to-head average nudging two of us slightly under.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPalermo's home scoring rate should overwhelm a Carrarese side that fails to score often
Palermo's 71% both-teams-score rate keeps the over live, but Carrarese's blunt attack leans under.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop of the table with a perfect home run, Palermo hold all the pressure advantages
Palermo sit 1st on 19 points from 7 games, unbeaten with six wins, and have won their last five at home. Carrarese are 14th on 7 points with four defeats in six. Palermo also had 7 days' rest to Carrarese's 8 but a lighter load, one game in 14.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks right, but the over at 49% may be a touch generous
Carrarese's last four away games produced just 3 goals scored and 3 conceded, and their head-to-head with Palermo averages 2.2 goals per game. Palermo's 4+ goal share is only 27%. A home win looks fair, but under 2.5 has a real case.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Palermo are clear favourites at 66%, with Carrarese on 15% and the draw on 19%. Palermo are 1st and Carrarese 16th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Palermo won four and Carrarese two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Palermo win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Carrarese win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Palermo and 1.0 from Carrarese. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 24% | 23% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1057 | |
| 2 | 66% | 19% | 15% | Prices moved | #1330 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Palermo: last 6
WWWDWW · 17 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Mantova | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Empoli | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Mantova Coppa Italia | 5–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Carrarese: last 6
WWLLLD · 5 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Modena | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Padova | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: WLDL
Season stats
| Palermo | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Palermo won 2, Carrarese 1, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Carrarese | 0–1 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Palermo | 5–0 | Carrarese | Serie B |
| 13 May 2025 | Palermo | 1–1 | Carrarese | Serie B |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Carrarese | 1–0 | Palermo | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Palermo 7Carrarese 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Palermo 1 · Carrarese 2
- Referee
- Mattia Drigo
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
