Modena vs Cesena prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Modena to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three make Modena clear favourites, with 1X2 readings clustered around the published 63/22/15. The one divide is goals: the Coach sees 2.0 expected home goals justifying the over, while the Sceptic's 1.7 goals-per-game head-to-head record argues the 55% over 2.5 line is a touch generous. A home win with goals at both ends is the common ground.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersModena's attacking rate meets a leaky Cesena defence - goals look likely
The home side's 2.0 expected goals against 0.9 for Cesena points to a game with chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth meets twelfth, and the gap in points and rest favours Modena
Modena sit 4th with 13 points from 7 games and won 3 of their last 6, while 12th-placed Cesena have drawn 5 of their last 6. Modena also have 7 days' rest to Cesena's 5, so the home side arrive fresher with more momentum.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Modena are clear favourites at 63%, with Cesena on 15% and the draw on 22%. Modena are 4th and Cesena 13th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Modena won two and Cesena none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Modena win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Cesena win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Modena and 0.9 from Cesena. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 22% | 15% | Stats preview | #682 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Modena: last 6
LWWDLW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Carrarese | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Hellas Verona | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | at Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
Last 3 at home: WWL
Cesena: last 6
DLDDDW · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Benevento | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LDWL
Season stats
| Modena | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 86% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Modena won 2, Cesena 2, 2 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Modena | 0–0 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Cesena | 1–0 | Modena | Serie B |
| 13 May 2025 | Modena | 0–1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 13 Sep 2024 | Cesena | 2–2 | Modena | Serie B |
| 7 Feb 2022 | Modena | 1–0 | Cesena | Serie C - Girone B |
| 28 Sep 2021 | Cesena | 1–2 | Modena | Serie C - Girone B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Modena 7Cesena 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Modena 2 · Cesena 1
- Referee
- Dario Madonia
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
