Sudtirol vs Sampdoria prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Sampdoria 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a tight contest, but the data suggests Sudtirol holds the edge. While the market is balanced, the strong home form of Sudtirol and the poor away record of Sampdoria give the home side a slight advantage. The probability of goals remains high, supported by Sampdoria's high concession rate.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Sudtirol's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSudtirol's home defensive solidity should prove challenging for a struggling Sampdoria side.
Sudtirol has been strong at home, recording 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded in their last 4 matches. Sampdoria, conversely, has conceded 12 goals in their last 5 away fixtures.
Sudtirol: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSudtirol's mid-table standing provides a strong platform for this crucial Serie B fixture.
Sudtirol sits 5th in the table with 12 points from 7 games. Sampdoria is 20th with only 4 points from 7 games, facing significant pressure.
Sudtirol: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may undervalue Sudtirol given their strong historical record against Sampdoria.
In the last 6 head-to-head encounters, Sudtirol has won 4 matches. Sampdoria's season shows they have failed to score in 14% of their games.
Sudtirol: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sampdoria are slight favourites at 36%, with Sudtirol on 32% and the draw on 32%. Sudtirol are 5th and Sampdoria 20th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Sudtirol won two and Sampdoria one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sudtirol win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 68%
- Sampdoria win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sudtirol and 1.2 from Sampdoria. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 32% | 35% | Stats preview | #683 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sudtirol: last 6
LDWLDW · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Juve Stabia | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Ascoli | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Genoa Coppa Italia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: DDWW
Sampdoria: last 6
LLWLLL · 6 scored, 14 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Avellino | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| Sudtirol | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 2.14 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 86% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sudtirol won 4, Sampdoria 2, 0 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | Sampdoria | 1–0 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Sudtirol | 3–1 | Sampdoria | Serie B |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Sudtirol | 2–1 | Sampdoria | Serie B |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Sampdoria | 1–0 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Sampdoria | 0–1 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Sudtirol | 3–1 | Sampdoria | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Sudtirol 6Sampdoria 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sudtirol 1 · Sampdoria 1
- Referee
- Valerio Crezzini
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
