Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Empoli 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published 40-28-31: a close game with a slight home edge. The Coach sees goals from two porous defences, the Dressing Room notes Empoli's home win amid two struggling sides, and the Sceptic finds the prices broadly fair given Vicenza's better scoring rate. A competitive, goals-friendly match is the consensus.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Empoli's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals at both ends
Vicenza concede 2.14 a game with zero clean sheets, while Empoli ship 1.57. A 2+ goal game sits at 75%.
Empoli: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides desperate, but Empoli's home crowd matters
Empoli sit 14th with 7 points from 7; Vicenza are 17th on 6. Empoli have lost four of six but won their last home game, while Vicenza are winless in six and winless away. Equal rest of 6 days each, so home support could tip a tight relegation-adjacent scrap.
Empoli: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket slightly overrates Empoli given the form gap
Empoli have one win in six and lost 2-4 at home to Palermo; Vicenza drew three of six and scored in five. Head-to-head favours Empoli (3 wins in 4), but Vicenza's 1.29 goals a game beats Empoli's 1.00. The 40-28-31 line looks fair, maybe a touch generous to the hosts.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Empoli are slight favourites at 38%, with Vicenza Virtus on 33% and the draw on 29%. Empoli are 14th and Vicenza Virtus 17th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Empoli won one and Vicenza Virtus none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Empoli win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Vicenza Virtus win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Empoli and 1.3 from Vicenza Virtus. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Empoli: last 6
DLLLWL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Palermo | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | at Mantova | 1–3 | L |
Last 3 at home: LLW
Vicenza Virtus: last 6
DLLDDL · 6 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Benevento | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Hellas Verona | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Avellino | 0–3 | L |
Last 4 away: DLDL
Season stats
| Empoli | Vicenza Virtus | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 2.14 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Empoli won 3, Vicenza Virtus 0, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2021 | Empoli | 4–2 | Vicenza Virtus | Coppa Italia |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Vicenza Virtus | 0–2 | Empoli | Serie B |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Empoli | 2–2 | Vicenza Virtus | Serie B |
| 13 Aug 2016 | Empoli | 2–0 | Vicenza Virtus | Coppa Italia |
Match context
- Rest days
- Empoli 6Vicenza Virtus 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Empoli 2 · Vicenza Virtus 2
- Referee
- Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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