US Avellino vs Padova prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
US Avellino to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three lean home, with the Coach and Dressing Room close to the published 44/29/27 and the Sceptic nudging towards Padova on head-to-head form. On goals, the Coach sees slightly more than the 44% over line, the Sceptic slightly less; net reading stays near the market: Avellino favourites, over 2.5 a coin-flip.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think US Avellino's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAvellino's home scoring points to goals and an edge.
Avellino score 2.25 per game at home and never fail to score, while Padova average 0.75 away. BTTS hits 71% at home, and Padova keep just 29% clean sheets.
US Avellino: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureForm and points gap favour the hosts at home.
Padova have lost five of six and sit 15th on 7 points; Avellino are 7th on 11. Avellino had 5 days' rest to Padova's 7, though Padova played twice in 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe head-to-head history cools the home favouritism.
Padova won 2 of the last 5 meetings, Avellino only 1, with 1.8 goals a game and 3 of 5 under three goals. The 44% home price looks a touch high; I'd shave it.
US Avellino: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
US Avellino are slight favourites at 44%, with Padova on 27% and the draw on 29%. US Avellino are 7th and Padova 15th in Serie B. In their last five league games, US Avellino won two and Padova one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- US Avellino win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Padova win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.4 goals from US Avellino and 1.0 from Padova. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 29% | 27% | Stats preview | #681 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
US Avellino: last 6
DWLDWW · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Vicenza Virtus | 3–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDWL
Padova: last 6
LLLWLD · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Virtus Entella | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Carrarese | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Palermo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: LLWL
Season stats
| US Avellino | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | US Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: US Avellino won 1, Padova 2, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | US Avellino | 1–0 | Padova | Serie B |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Padova | 2–2 | US Avellino | Serie B |
| 3 May 2025 | US Avellino | 0–1 | Padova | Serie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals |
| 9 Jun 2021 | US Avellino | 0–1 | Padova | Serie C - Girone A |
| 6 Jun 2021 | Padova | 1–1 | US Avellino | Serie C - Girone A |
Match context
- Rest days
- US Avellino 5Padova 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: US Avellino 1 · Padova 2
- Referee
- Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
