Arezzo vs Benevento prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Benevento 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three make Benevento favourites, in line with the published 48%, but the sceptic's doubt about their away scoring keeps the gap modest. On totals, Arezzo's 71% over rate pulls against Benevento's 43%, landing near the published 54% for over 2.5. A competitive mid-table match with a slight away lean is the fair reading.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Benevento's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBenevento's away scoring slump tempers their edge, but Arezzo leak too much.
Arezzo concede 2.00 per game this season and shipped 14 in seven matches, with heavy home defeats in recent weeks. Both-teams-score rates sit at 57% for both sides.
Benevento: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo mid-table sides, one point apart, with Benevento in better recent shape.
Benevento sit 8th on 11 points, Arezzo 9th on 10, so there is little to separate them in the table. Benevento have lost once in six, Arezzo have lost four of six. Both had a full week's rest with one game in 14 days, so fatigue should not decide it.
Benevento: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 48% away number looks slightly generous given Benevento's away record.
Benevento have won once in their last three away games, scoring 2 and conceding 5, and only 0.50 goals per game away this season. The head-to-head was a tight 1-0. I'd shade Arezzo up a touch and lean under, since Benevento games go over 2.5 just 43% of the time.
Benevento: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Benevento are slight favourites at 39%, with Arezzo on 31% and the draw on 30%. Arezzo are 10th and Benevento 8th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Arezzo won two and Benevento three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arezzo win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Benevento win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Arezzo and 1.3 from Benevento. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 24% | 48% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #745 | |
| 2 | 31% | 30% | 39% | Prices moved | #746 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arezzo: last 6
WDLWLL · 6 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Hellas Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: DLLW
Benevento: last 6
DWWWLD · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Cesena | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hellas Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 away: WLL
Season stats
| Arezzo | Benevento | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Arezzo won 0, Benevento 1, 0 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Benevento | 1–0 | Arezzo | Serie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals |
Match context
- Rest days
- Arezzo 6Benevento 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arezzo 1 · Benevento 1
- Referee
- Francesco Fourneau
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
