Virtus Entella vs Mantova prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Virtus Entella to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
The coach's reading of two open, high-scoring profiles and the dressing room's view of a strong visiting side both sit close to the published numbers: home 42%, draw 30%, away 28%, over 2.5 at 47%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Mantova's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Mantova favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides ship and score regularly - an open game is live here.
Still, the last two meetings were 1-0 wins apiece, so I stay near the published 47% for over 2.5.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMantova arrive in form and fresh, but the hosts have the rest edge.
The hosts have 7 days' rest to the visitors' 6 and two games in a fortnight for Mantova. That freshness and home form keep this tight, near the 42-30-28 line.
Virtus Entella: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket slight on Mantova for me - their away scoring earns a nudge.
Mantova score 2.00 a game away and won three of their last five on the road, so 28% feels a touch light; I lift them to 30% at the hosts' expense. But their 0-2 loss to Palermo last time and a head-to-head of 1.0 goals per game cap me on goals, so 3+ at 46% reads about right.
Mantova: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Virtus Entella are slight favourites at 42%, with Mantova on 28% and the draw on 30%. Virtus Entella are 10th and Mantova 2nd in Serie B. In their last five league games, Virtus Entella won two and Mantova two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Virtus Entella win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Mantova win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Virtus Entella and 1.1 from Mantova. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 30% | 28% | Stats preview | #679 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Virtus Entella: last 6
WDDWDL · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 at home: DDL
Mantova: last 6
LWDWDL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Palermo | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Catanzaro | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Sep | at Palermo Coppa Italia | 2–5 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLWW
Season stats
| Virtus Entella | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.14 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Virtus Entella won 1, Mantova 1, 0 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Mantova | 1–0 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Virtus Entella | 1–0 | Mantova | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Virtus Entella 7Mantova 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Virtus Entella 1 · Mantova 2
- Referee
- Paride Tremolada
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
