Catanzaro vs Ascoli prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Ascoli 36%)
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54% · ✓ 7 goals
The Verdict
All three agree the 1X2 numbers (Catanzaro 37%, draw 30%, Ascoli 33%) broadly hold, with Catanzaro's home goals and Ascoli's better points tally roughly balancing out.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Catanzaro's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCatanzaro's leaky defence meets Ascoli's tight, low-scoring away game.
Goals look likelier at one end.
Catanzaro: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAscoli's solidity contrasts with a Catanzaro side short on points.
Catanzaro sit 19th with 4 points from 7 (W1 D1 L5), while Ascoli are 6th with 12 (W3 D3 L1). Catanzaro have lost 4 of their last 6, so pressure at the bottom of the table is real, though both sides had 7 days' rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe over 2.5 at 53% looks a touch high given Ascoli's low-scoring profile.
The 53% over 2.5 line leans heavily on Catanzaro's 71% over-rate; Ascoli sit at just 29% and have kept clean sheets in 29% of games. Ascoli also won the most recent head-to-head 1-0, and their 0-5 goal record away recently suggests unders may be underestimated.
Catanzaro: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ascoli are slight favourites at 36%, with Catanzaro on 35% and the draw on 29%. Catanzaro are 20th and Ascoli 6th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Catanzaro won one and Ascoli two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Catanzaro win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Ascoli win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Catanzaro and 1.4 from Ascoli. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Catanzaro: last 6
DLLWLL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Hellas Verona | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Pisa | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 at home: LWD
Ascoli: last 6
DDWLWD · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Empoli | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Sudtirol | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: DLWL
Season stats
| Catanzaro | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | +10 | 22 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Catanzaro won 1, Ascoli 1, 0 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2024 | Catanzaro | 3–2 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Ascoli | 1–0 | Catanzaro | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Catanzaro 7Ascoli 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Catanzaro 2 · Ascoli 1
- Referee
- Andrea Calzavara
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
