Virtus Entella vs US Avellino prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Virtus Entella to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic only nudges Avellino up on the head-to-head. On goals, the coach leans under 2.5 while the room and sceptic stay near the published 43% over rate.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think US Avellino's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make US Avellino favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEntella's home scoring slump and Avellino's away dip point to a tight, lowish-scoring game.
Entella score just 1.00 per game at home against 1.50 away, and Avellino manage only 1.00 away against 1.80 at home - both attacks weaken in this configuration. Entella keep clean sheets just 12% of the time, yet Avellino fail to score only 12%.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThree points apart, Entella's home woes make the draw a live outcome.
Avellino sit 8th on 11 points, Entella 12th on 9, so the visitors carry the brighter league position. Entella's last six show one win and their home form reads L D D L, which keeps the stakes calm for both.
Virtus Entella: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome lean looks fair, though Avellino's H2H grip nudges me off the price slightly.
Four draws in the last six meetings and a 2-1 Avellino win in 2026 temper the 45% home quote; I make it 42%. The 30% draw sits well.
US Avellino: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Virtus Entella are favourites at 45%, with US Avellino on 25% and the draw on 30%. Virtus Entella are 12th and US Avellino 8th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Virtus Entella won two and US Avellino one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Virtus Entella win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- US Avellino win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Virtus Entella and 1.0 from US Avellino. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 30% | 25% | Stats preview | #1605 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Virtus Entella: last 6
LWDDWD · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Mantova | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Padova | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LDDL
US Avellino: last 6
LDWLDW · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Modena | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 away: DLWL
Season stats
| Virtus Entella | US Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | US Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Virtus Entella won 0, US Avellino 2, 4 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Virtus Entella | 1–2 | US Avellino | Serie B |
| 27 Sep 2025 | US Avellino | 2–0 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
| 10 May 2025 | Virtus Entella | 1–1 | US Avellino | Serie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals |
| 14 Apr 2018 | Virtus Entella | 1–1 | US Avellino | Serie B |
| 11 Nov 2017 | US Avellino | 0–0 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
| 28 Jan 2017 | US Avellino | 2–2 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
Match context
- Travel for US Avellino
- 585 km
- Rest days
- Virtus Entella 3US Avellino 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Virtus Entella 2 · US Avellino 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Simone Galipo
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
