Padova vs Sudtirol prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Padova 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The analysis presents a conflict between statistical attacking trends and historical defensive patterns. While the Coach highlights high goal expectations, the Sceptic points to a history of draws and low-scoring encounters.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Sudtirol are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPadova's defensive frailties clash with Sudtirol's attacking output.
Padova concedes 1.25 goals per game while Sudtirol scores 1.25 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSudtirol holds a slight advantage in the current league standings.
Sudtirol sits 7th with 13 points from 8 games, compared to Padova in 9th place with 10 points from 8 games. Both sides have had a recent fixture load of 2 games in 14 days.
Sudtirol: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be overestimating the goal potential of this fixture.
The last 6 head-to-head matches saw 4 draws and only 1.0 goals per game. The season record shows 48% of matches ending with both teams scoring.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Padova are slight favourites at 38%, with Sudtirol on 32% and the draw on 30%. Padova are 9th and Sudtirol 7th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Padova won two and Sudtirol one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Padova win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Sudtirol win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Padova and 1.1 from Sudtirol. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 30% | 32% | Stats preview | #1596 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Padova: last 6
WLLLWL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Avellino | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Virtus Entella | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Carrarese | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Palermo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLWD
Sudtirol: last 6
DLDWLD · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Juve Stabia | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Ascoli | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Genoa Coppa Italia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWLDD
Season stats
| Padova | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 8 | +2 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Padova won 1, Sudtirol 1, 4 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Sudtirol | 3–0 | Padova | Serie B |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Padova | 1–1 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Sudtirol | 0–0 | Padova | Serie C - Girone A |
| 6 Apr 2022 | Sudtirol | 0–1 | Padova | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| 9 Mar 2022 | Padova | 0–0 | Sudtirol | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| 12 Dec 2021 | Padova | 0–0 | Sudtirol | Serie C - Girone A |
Match context
- Travel for Sudtirol
- 127 km
- Rest days
- Padova 3Sudtirol 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Padova 2 · Sudtirol 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
