Benevento vs Catanzaro prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Benevento to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The consensus points towards a Benevento victory, driven by their superior league position and home form. While the market suggests a moderate chance of goals, the season statistics indicate a higher likelihood of an open affair. The strong home advantage is the most consistent factor across the three analyses.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Dressing Room thinks Benevento are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBenevento's strong home scoring attack is likely to dominate this encounter.
Benevento averages 1.80 goals scored at home. Catanzaro concedes 2.50 goals per game overall. Benevento's expected goals are 1.9.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe significant gap in league standings suggests a clear advantage for the home side.
Benevento sits 5th with 14 points from 8 games. Catanzaro is 20th with only 4 points from 8 games. Both sides have 3 days rest.
Benevento: strongly underrated
High The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high goal frequency in the season stats suggests the market may be underestimating the attacking nature of this match.
Catanzaro has a 75% rate of matches over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams scoring. Benevento's season O2.5 rate is 50%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Benevento are favourites at 56%, with Catanzaro on 22% and the draw on 22%. Benevento are 5th and Catanzaro 20th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Benevento won four and Catanzaro one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Benevento win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Catanzaro win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Benevento and 1.1 from Catanzaro. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Benevento: last 6
WDWWWL · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Arezzo | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Vicenza Virtus | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Cesena | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hellas Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWDL
Catanzaro: last 6
LDLLWL · 6 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Ascoli | 1–6 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Hellas Verona | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Benevento | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 2.50 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWDW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | +5 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | -11 | 4 | LDLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Catanzaro
- 294 km
- Rest days
- Benevento 3Catanzaro 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Benevento 2 · Catanzaro 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Alberto Poli
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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