Pafos vs Riga prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Pafos to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✗ 2 goals
In short
Pafos are clear favourites at 61%, with Riga on 17% and the draw on 22%. Pafos are 32nd and Riga 18th in the Conference League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Pafos won one and Riga two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Pafos win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Riga win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Pafos and 0.9 from Riga. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 22% | 16% | Stats preview | #467 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Pafos: last 6
DLWDDL · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Apoel Nicosia 1. Division | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Atalanta | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Dinamo Tirana | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Aug | at Dinamo Tirana | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Aug | vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Aug | at Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: DWDW
Riga: last 6
WDWDDW · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Super Nova Virsliga | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Kairat Almaty | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Aug | vs KI Klaksvik | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Aug | at KI Klaksvik | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Aug | at Gyori ETO FC | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Aug | vs Gyori ETO FC | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 away: DDWL
Season stats
| Pafos | Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 3 and 7 games.
Conference League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | -3 | 1 | LD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Pafos 3Riga 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Pafos 2 · Riga 2
- Referee
- Marian Barbu
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
