FK Jablonec 24thL

17:45

Thu 22 OctUK time (GMT)

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FK Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction

Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast

Who wins?

Brighton & Hove to win: 75%, about 3 in 4

FK Jablonec10%Bookies 8

Draw15%Bookies 14

Brighton & Hove75%Bookies 78

We're a little less confident in Brighton & Hove than the bookmakers (3 percentage points): Brighton's heavy rotation, fixture congestion and absences temper an otherwise dominant favourite. Why

The Verdict

Our away probability sits three points below the bookmakers', reflecting Brighton's heavy rotation, five away games in sixteen days and the listed absences, while Jablonec's unbeaten European home run adds draw weight. The Sceptic's view was only partly followed: it argued for a six-point shift towards Jablonec, but we applied a smaller adjustment because Brighton's quality and form remain decisive.

Version 3, locked at kick-off Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

What our AI analysts say

1 of 3 think FK Jablonec's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make FK Jablonec favourites.

The Coach

tactics and lineups

Brighton's attacking quality should overcome Jablonec's deep defensive setup.

Brighton is missing key players like Kaoru Mitoma and Evan Ferguson. Jablonec is expected to play a deep block with counterattacks. Brighton's coach expects heavy rotation due to fixture congestion.

✓ In line with bookmakers Fewer goals

The Dressing Room

mood and pressure

Brighton is third in the Premier League and recently won 5-0 vs Crystal Palace. Jablonec is unbeaten in seven European home matches. Brighton is facing heavy fixture congestion, being in their first of five successive away games in 16 days.

✓ In line with bookmakers Fewer goals

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

Brighton is the favorite, but the match is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Brighton has recently won 5-0 and 4-0 in the Conference League.

FK Jablonec: clearly underrated Fewer goalsMed

AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best

In short

Jablonec lost narrowly at Freiburg but are unbeaten in seven European home matches. Brighton are expected to rotate heavily with several players unavailable.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

FK Jablonec win or draw: 25%
Either team wins (no draw): 85%
Brighton & Hove Albion win or draw: 90%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 87%
3+ goals: 70%
4+ goals: 48%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 56%
No: 44%

We expect about 0.9 goals from FK Jablonec and 2.7 from Brighton & Hove Albion. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–3 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 0–1 (7%).

How we got to these numbers

Home = FK Jablonec win, Away = Brighton & Hove Albion win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	8%	14%	78%	64%
AI analysts	24%	26%	50%	60%
Our forecast	10%	15%	75%	–

Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market but tilt slightly towards the home side and the draw, because Brighton's expected rotation, fixture congestion and listed absences reduce the margin a full-strength side would command, while Jablonec's unbeaten European home record supports a tighter contest.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	21 Oct 17:48	9%	15%	76%	Stats preview	#474
2	22 Oct 05:53	8%	14%	78%	Prices moved	#529
3	22 Oct 08:49	10%	15%	75%	Full analysis	#531

Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

FK Jablonec: last 6

LLWLWW · 9 scored, 8 conceded

18 Oct	vs Plzen Czech Liga	2–3	L
15 Oct	at SC Freiburg	2–3	L
27 Aug	vs Rangers	1–0	W
20 Aug	at Rangers	0–1	L
13 Aug	at Rīgas FS	2–1	W
6 Aug	vs Rīgas FS	2–0	W

Last 4 at home: LWWW

Brighton & Hove Albion: last 6

WWWWWW · 22 scored, 2 conceded

18 Oct	vs Crystal Palace Premier League	5–0	W
15 Oct	vs Kauno Žalgiris	4–0	W
10 Oct	at Sunderland Premier League	2–0	W
19 Sep	vs Arsenal Premier League	3–0	W
16 Sep	at Manchester United League Cup	3–2	W
13 Sep	at Coventry Premier League	5–0	W

Last 5 away: WWWLD

Season stats

FK Jablonec		Brighton & Hove Albion
1.57	Goals scored per game	2.67
1.14	Goals conceded per game	0.00
1.67	Scored per game at home	4.00
1.50	Scored per game away	0.00
43%	Matches over 2.5 goals	67%
43%	Both teams scored	0%
43%	Clean sheets	100%
14%	Failed to score	33%

League matches only, 7 and 3 games.

Conference League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
6	Monaco	2	+4	6	WW
7	St. Truiden	2	+3	6	WW
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	+2	6	WW
9	Brighton & Hove Albion	2	+4	4	DW
10	FC Copenhagen	2	+3	4	DW
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	+2	4	WD
12	Mjallby AIF	2	+2	4	DW
…
21	Riga	2	+0	2	DD
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	-1	1	DL
23	CSKA Sofia	2	-1	1	DL
24	FK Jablonec	2	-1	1	DL
25	FC Midtjylland	2	-1	1	LD
26	Aarhus	2	-1	1	DL
27	Pafos	2	-2	1	DL

Full Conference League table · Predicted final table

Team news: lineups Confirmed

FK Jablonec4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

1Jan Hanuš

Defenders

18Martin Cedidla
4Nemanja Tekijaški
15Dušan Pavlović
20Jiří Sláma

Midfielders

13Richard Sedláček
6Nelson Okeke
7Vakhtang Chanturishvili
17Saidou Alioum Moubarak
21Matěj Polidar

Forward

9Antonín Růsek

Substitutes (11)

25Sebastian Nebyla
36Garang Kuol
24Dominik Hollý
99Klemen Mihelak
57Filip Novák
31Evzen Maly
8Filip Zorvan
14Daniel Souček
12David Nykrin
34Adam Kubát
19Jan Chramosta

Brighton & Hove Albion4-2-3-1