AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
AS Monaco to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
AS Monaco are slight favourites at 43%, with SC Freiburg on 31% and the draw on 26%. AS Monaco are 12th and SC Freiburg 11th in the Conference League. In their last five matches across all competitions, AS Monaco won two and SC Freiburg three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AS Monaco win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- SC Freiburg win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.7 goals from AS Monaco and 1.4 from SC Freiburg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 27% | 31% | Stats preview | #493 | |
| 2 | 45% | 27% | 28% | Prices moved | #550 | |
| 3 | 43% | 26% | 31% | Prices moved | #599 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AS Monaco: last 6
LWDWDW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Lorient Ligue 1 | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | at CSKA Sofia | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Toulouse Ligue 1 | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Lens Ligue 1 | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Strasbourg Ligue 1 | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: DWWW
SC Freiburg: last 6
LWWDWW · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWWW
Season stats
| AS Monaco | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | Goals scored per game | 3.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.50 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game away | 3.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 3 games each.
Conference League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brann | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | AS Monaco | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | +0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
Match context
- Rest days
- AS Monaco 4SC Freiburg 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: AS Monaco 3 · SC Freiburg 3
- Referee
- Samuel Barrott
- 3.0 yellow cards per game and 0.20 penalties per game over 5 games — below the Conference League average (5.0 yellows).
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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