Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ajax Amsterdam to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 2 goals
In short
Ajax Amsterdam are favourites at 45%, with Atalanta on 30% and the draw on 25%. Ajax Amsterdam are 28th and Atalanta 9th in the Conference League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Ajax Amsterdam won two and Atalanta two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ajax Amsterdam win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Atalanta win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Ajax Amsterdam and 1.4 from Atalanta. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 25% | 30% | Stats preview | #494 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ajax Amsterdam: last 6
WLDDWW · 19 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Groningen Eredivisie | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at HNK Hajduk Split | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Excelsior Eredivisie | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Willem II Eredivisie | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie | 5–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWLW
Atalanta: last 6
LWWLLL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | at AC Milan Serie A | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia Serie A | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Juventus Serie A | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Cagliari Serie A | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at AS Roma Serie A | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLW
Season stats
| Ajax Amsterdam | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.71 | Goals conceded per game | 0.33 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 7 and 3 games.
Conference League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | +0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | -2 | 3 | LW |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ajax Amsterdam won 0, Atalanta 1, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2020 | Ajax Amsterdam | 0–1 | Atalanta | UEFA Champions League |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Atalanta | 2–2 | Ajax Amsterdam | UEFA Champions League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Ajax Amsterdam 4Atalanta 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ajax Amsterdam 3 · Atalanta 3
- Referee
- Antonio Nobre
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
