FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
HNK Hajduk Split to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 1 goals
In short
HNK Hajduk Split are slight favourites at 42%, with FC Thun on 32% and the draw on 26%. FC Thun are 32nd and HNK Hajduk Split 13th in the Conference League. In their last five matches across all competitions, FC Thun won none and HNK Hajduk Split four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Thun win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- HNK Hajduk Split win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.4 goals from FC Thun and 1.7 from HNK Hajduk Split. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (7%), 2–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Thun: last 6
DLDLLW · 9 scored, 15 conceded
| 18 Oct | at FC Schaffhausen Schweizer Cup | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Twente | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Aug | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 0–7 | L |
| 13 Aug | at Vikingur Reykjavik UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Aug | vs Vikingur Reykjavik UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
Last 3 at home: DWD
HNK Hajduk Split: last 6
WWWDWW · 17 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs NK Varazdin HNL | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Ajax | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | at Raków Częstochowa | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Aug | vs Raków Częstochowa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Aug | vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Aug | at FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 5–2 | W |
Last 4 away: WWLL
Conference League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Twente | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| … | |||||
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
Match context
- Rest days
- FC Thun 4HNK Hajduk Split 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Thun 2 · HNK Hajduk Split 2
- Referee
- Jarred Gillett
- 4.7 yellow cards per game and no penalties over 6 games — below the Conference League average (5.0 yellows).
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
