VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Atletico Madrid to win: 46%, about 1 in 2

VfB Stuttgart30%Bookies 30

Draw24%Bookies 24

Atletico Madrid46%Bookies 46

Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66% · ✗ 2 goals

! Drawn: we gave a draw 24% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Atletico Madrid are favourites at 46%, with VfB Stuttgart on 30% and the draw on 24%. VfB Stuttgart are 4th and Atletico Madrid 16th in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, VfB Stuttgart won two and Atletico Madrid five.

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Win or draw (double chance)

VfB Stuttgart win or draw: 54%
Either team wins (no draw): 76%
Atletico Madrid win or draw: 70%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 85%
3+ goals: 66%
4+ goals: 44%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

We expect about 1.5 goals from VfB Stuttgart and 1.9 from Atletico Madrid. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 11. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	19 Oct 20:01	30%	24%	46%	Stats preview	#301

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

VfB Stuttgart: last 6

LWWLLW · 9 scored, 5 conceded

17 Oct	at Hamburger SV Bundesliga	0–1	L
14 Oct	at Slovan Bratislava	3–0	W
10 Oct	at SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga	2–0	W
19 Sep	vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga	0–1	L
12 Sep	at 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga	1–2	L
9 Sep	vs Viking	3–1	W

Last 3 at home: LWW

Atletico Madrid: last 6

WWWWWW · 14 scored, 2 conceded

17 Oct	at Espanyol La Liga	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Manchester United	2–0	W
10 Oct	at Alaves La Liga	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Real Madrid La Liga	2–1	W
16 Sep	vs Osasuna La Liga	4–0	W
13 Sep	at Real Sociedad La Liga	3–0	W

Last 5 away: WWWLL

Season stats

VfB Stuttgart		Atletico Madrid
3.00	Goals scored per game	1.50
0.50	Goals conceded per game	1.00
3.00	Scored per game at home	2.00
3.00	Scored per game away	1.00
100%	Matches over 2.5 goals	50%
50%	Both teams scored	50%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	0%

League matches only, 2 games each.

Champions League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
3	Liverpool	3	+5	9	WWW
4	Real Madrid	3	+5	9	WWW
5	Real Betis	3	+3	9	WWW
6	VfB Stuttgart	3	+5	7	DWW
7	Arsenal	3	+4	7	DWW
8	Barcelona	3	+5	6	LWW
9	Como	3	+5	6	WLW
…
13	Borussia Dortmund	3	+1	6	WLW
14	Bayern München	3	+5	5	DDW
15	AS Roma	3	+3	4	WLD
16	Atletico Madrid	3	+1	4	DWL
17	Shakhtar Donetsk	3	+1	4	LWD
18	PSV Eindhoven	3	+0	4	WLD
19	Villarreal	3	+0	3	LWL