Lille vs Galatasaray prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Lille to win: 45%, about 2 in 5

Lille45%Bookies 45

Draw25%Bookies 25

Galatasaray30%Bookies 30

Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✓ 6 goals

! Upset: we gave Galatasaray 30% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Lille are favourites at 45%, with Galatasaray on 30% and the draw on 25%. Lille are 34th and Galatasaray 35th in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Lille won two and Galatasaray three.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Lille win or draw: 70%
Either team wins (no draw): 75%
Galatasaray win or draw: 55%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 82%
3+ goals: 61%
4+ goals: 38%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 62%
No: 38%

We expect about 1.7 goals from Lille and 1.4 from Galatasaray. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	20 Oct 17:46	45%	25%	30%	Stats preview	#357

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Lille: last 6

DLWLWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded

17 Oct	vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1	1–1	D
13 Oct	at Arsenal	0–3	L
10 Oct	vs Le Havre Ligue 1	1–0	W
20 Sep	at Nice Ligue 1	1–2	L
13 Sep	vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1	2–0	W
8 Sep	vs Real Betis	2–3	L

Last 5 at home: DWWLD

Galatasaray: last 6

WLWLWL · 7 scored, 12 conceded

17 Oct	at Gençlerbirliği S.K. Süper Lig	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Barcelona	1–4	L
9 Oct	vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig	3–1	W
19 Sep	at Trabzonspor Süper Lig	0–4	L
13 Sep	vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig	1–0	W
9 Sep	at Sporting CP	1–3	L

Last 5 away: WLLWW

Season stats

Lille		Galatasaray
1.00	Goals scored per game	1.00
3.00	Goals conceded per game	3.50
2.00	Scored per game at home	1.00
0.00	Scored per game away	1.00
100%	Matches over 2.5 goals	100%
50%	Both teams scored	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	0%

League matches only, 2 games each.

Champions League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
20	Manchester United	3	-1	3	LLW
21	Inter	3	-1	3	WLL
22	Napoli	3	-2	3	WLL
23	Galatasaray	3	-3	3	WLL
24	Lask Linz	3	-3	3	WLL
25	Feyenoord	3	-4	3	LWL
26	Lens	3	-4	3	LLW
…
32	Viking	3	-4	1	LDL
33	Sabah FC	0	+0	0
34	FC Porto	3	-4	0	LLL
35	Lille	3	-6	0	LLL
36	Slovan Bratislava	3	-12	0	LLL