Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Inter to win: 79%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 72% · bookies 72% · ✗ 1 goals
In short
Inter are clear favourites at 79%, with Shakhtar Donetsk on 8% and the draw on 13%. Inter are 32nd and Shakhtar Donetsk 15th in the Champions League. In their last three matches across all competitions, Inter won two and Shakhtar Donetsk two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Inter win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 87%
- Shakhtar Donetsk win or draw
- 20%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 72%
- 4+ goals
- 51%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.9 goals from Inter and 0.8 from Shakhtar Donetsk. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 4–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Inter: last 6
WLWDWL · 17 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Bologna Serie A | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Club Brugge KV | 3–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Parma Serie A | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at AS Roma Serie A | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Udinese Serie A | 5–3 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Shakhtar Donetsk: last 3
WWD · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Kolos Kovalivka Premier League | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs AEK Athens FC | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | at PSV Eindhoven | 1–1 | D |
Last 1 away: D
Season stats
| Inter | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 3.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | +0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | +0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Inter won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk 0, 3 draws; 1.4 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov 2021 | Inter | 2–0 | Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| 28 Sep 2021 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0–0 | Inter | UEFA Champions League |
| 9 Dec 2020 | Inter | 0–0 | Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0–0 | Inter | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Inter | 5–0 | Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Europa League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutC. JonesThigh
- OutL. MartinezThigh
- OutB. PavardThigh
Show 1 more
- OutJ. StonesInjury
- OutI. AzaroviKnee
- OutEguinaldoShoulder
- OutMarlonMuscle
Show 5 more
- OutV. KorniyenkoOff the roster
- OutP. ObahOff the roster
- OutT. PuzankovOff the roster
- OutM. ShvedOff the roster
- OutD. TvardovskyiOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Inter 4Shakhtar Donetsk 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Inter 3 · Shakhtar Donetsk 2
- Referee
- Harm Osmers
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
