Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Madrid to win: 81%, about 4 in 5
Goals call4 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 5 goals
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites at 81%, with RB Leipzig on 7% and the draw on 12%. Real Madrid are 10th and RB Leipzig 23rd in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Real Madrid won four and RB Leipzig three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Madrid win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 88%
- RB Leipzig win or draw
- 19%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 94%
- 3+ goals
- 82%
- 4+ goals
- 65%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 3.4 goals from Real Madrid and 1.1 from RB Leipzig. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–0 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 4–1 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Madrid: last 6
WWWLWW · 17 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Sevilla La Liga | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at AS Roma | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal La Liga | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Madrid La Liga | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Elche La Liga | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
RB Leipzig: last 6
LWWLWL · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Bayern München Bundesliga | 1–6 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 6–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 5–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | at Como | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Real Madrid | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| … | |||||
| 26 | Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 30 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 32 | Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Real Madrid won 2, RB Leipzig 1, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2024 | Real Madrid | 1–1 | RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| 13 Feb 2024 | RB Leipzig | 0–1 | Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| 25 Oct 2022 | RB Leipzig | 3–2 | Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| 14 Sep 2022 | Real Madrid | 2–0 | RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutR. AsencioBroken Leg
- OutF. MendyHip
- OutRodrygoKnee
- OutM. GuiuHamstring
- OutA. OuedraogoShoulder
- OutL. ZingerleOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Real Madrid 3RB Leipzig 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Madrid 3 · RB Leipzig 3
- Referee
- Istvan Kovacs
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
