FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Porto to win: 64%, about 2 in 3

Porto64%Bookies 64

Draw20%Bookies 20

PSV Eindhoven16%Bookies 16

Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✗ 1 goals

! Upset: we gave PSV Eindhoven 16% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

FC Porto are clear favourites at 64%, with PSV Eindhoven on 16% and the draw on 20%. FC Porto are 31st and PSV Eindhoven 26th in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, FC Porto won three and PSV Eindhoven two.

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Win or draw (double chance)

FC Porto win or draw: 84%
Either team wins (no draw): 80%
PSV Eindhoven win or draw: 36%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 83%
3+ goals: 62%
4+ goals: 40%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 56%
No: 44%

We expect about 2.2 goals from FC Porto and 1.0 from PSV Eindhoven. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	19 Oct 20:01	61%	20%	18%	Stats preview	#299
2	20 Oct 14:07	64%	20%	16%	Prices moved	#353

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

FC Porto: last 6

LWWWLW · 13 scored, 9 conceded

14 Oct	at Real Betis	2–3	L
10 Oct	at Maritimo Primeira Liga	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Benfica Primeira Liga	3–1	W
12 Sep	at Casa Pia Primeira Liga	4–1	W
8 Sep	vs Manchester City	0–2	L
4 Sep	vs Moreirense Primeira Liga	2–1	W

Last 5 at home: WLWWW

PSV Eindhoven: last 6

LLWLWD · 10 scored, 8 conceded

17 Oct	at ADO Den Haag Eredivisie	1–2	L
13 Oct	at RB Leipzig	0–1	L
9 Oct	vs Heerenveen Eredivisie	2–0	W
20 Sep	at Twente Eredivisie	2–3	L
13 Sep	vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie	4–1	W
10 Sep	vs Shakhtar Donetsk	1–1	D

Last 5 away: LLLWW

Season stats

FC Porto		PSV Eindhoven
1.00	Goals scored per game	0.50
2.50	Goals conceded per game	1.00
0.00	Scored per game at home	1.00
2.00	Scored per game away	0.00
50%	Matches over 2.5 goals	0%
50%	Both teams scored	50%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	50%

League matches only, 2 games each.

Champions League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
15	AS Roma	3	+3	4	WLD
16	Atletico Madrid	3	+1	4	DWL
17	Shakhtar Donetsk	3	+1	4	LWD
18	PSV Eindhoven	3	+0	4	WLD
19	Villarreal	3	+0	3	LWL
20	Manchester United	3	-1	3	LLW
21	Inter	3	-1	3	WLL
…
31	Slavia Praha	3	-3	1	DLL
32	Viking	3	-4	1	LDL
33	Sabah FC	0	+0	0
34	FC Porto	3	-4	0	LLL
35	Lille	3	-6	0	LLL
36	Slovan Bratislava	3	-12	0	LLL