Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Manchester City to win: 87%, about 9 in 10
Goals call4+ goals 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 6 goals
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites at 87%, with AEK Athens FC on 4% and the draw on 9%. Manchester City are 18th and AEK Athens FC 20th in the Champions League. In their last four matches across all competitions, Manchester City won three and AEK Athens FC two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Manchester City win or draw
- 96%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 91%
- AEK Athens FC win or draw
- 13%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 91%
- 3+ goals
- 77%
- 4+ goals
- 57%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 3.4 goals from Manchester City and 0.7 from AEK Athens FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (10%), 4–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Manchester City: last 6
WLWWWW · 19 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Ipswich Premier League | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Paris Saint Germain | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Liverpool Premier League | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Sunderland Premier League | 5–3 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Norwich League Cup | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Manchester United Premier League | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
AEK Athens FC: last 4
LWWD · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 14 Oct | at Shakhtar Donetsk | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Lask Linz | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | vs Levski Sofia | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Aug | at Levski Sofia | 0–0 | D |
Last 2 away: LD
Season stats
| Manchester City | AEK Athens FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 75% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 2 and 4 games.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| … | |||||
| 25 | Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 | Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 30 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Manchester City 3AEK Athens FC 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Manchester City 3 · AEK Athens FC 1
- Referee
- Willy Delajod
- Coaches
- E. Maresca
- Manchester City, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
