Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Paris Saint Germain to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call4 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 6 goals
In short
Paris Saint Germain are slight favourites at 40%, with Barcelona on 39% and the draw on 21%. Paris Saint Germain are 1st and Barcelona 3rd in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Paris Saint Germain won five and Barcelona five.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Paris Saint Germain win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Barcelona win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 94%
- 3+ goals
- 84%
- 4+ goals
- 68%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 81%
- No
- 19%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 2.3 from Barcelona. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–2 (7%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (6%), 1–2 (6%), 3–2 (5%), 2–3 (5%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 21% | 39% | Stats preview | #300 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Paris Saint Germain: last 6
WWWWWW · 19 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Strasbourg Ligue 1 | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Manchester City | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Mans Ligue 1 | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Marseille Ligue 1 | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Slovan Bratislava | 6–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWL
Barcelona: last 6
WWWWWW · 26 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Real Betis La Liga | 5–2 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Galatasaray | 4–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Getafe La Liga | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Sevilla La Liga | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Racing Santander La Liga | 7–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Levante La Liga | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWW
Season stats
| Paris Saint Germain | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | Goals scored per game | 4.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 6.00 | Scored per game at home | 5.00 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game away | 4.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain won 3, Barcelona 2, 1 draw; 4.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | Barcelona | 1–2 | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| 16 Apr 2024 | Barcelona | 1–4 | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Apr 2024 | Paris Saint Germain | 2–3 | Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Mar 2021 | Paris Saint Germain | 1–1 | Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| 16 Feb 2021 | Barcelona | 1–4 | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| 8 Mar 2017 | Barcelona | 6–1 | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. LongoniInjury
- OutN. MendesMuscle
- OutR. BardghjiKnee
- OutA. ChristensenMuscle
- OutE. GarciaMuscle
Show 1 more
- OutJ. KoundeAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Paris Saint Germain 3Barcelona 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Paris Saint Germain 3 · Barcelona 3
- Referee
- Michael Oliver
- 2.7 yellow cards per game and 0.17 penalties per game over 6 games — above the Champions League average (2.0 yellows).
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
