Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Liverpool to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67% · ✓ 7 goals
In short
Liverpool are clear favourites at 64%, with Villarreal on 16% and the draw on 20%. Liverpool are 5th and Villarreal 15th in the Champions League. In their last five matches across all competitions, Liverpool won four and Villarreal three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Liverpool win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Villarreal win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Liverpool and 1.1 from Villarreal. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 20% | 16% | Stats preview | #302 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Liverpool: last 6
WWLWWD · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Brentford Premier League | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Lask Linz | 6–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Manchester City Premier League | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Bournemouth Premier League | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Tottenham League Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Fulham Premier League | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWDWD
Villarreal: last 6
DWLWWL · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Elche La Liga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Napoli | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Real Madrid La Liga | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Levante La Liga | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Malaga La Liga | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Real Betis La Liga | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLD
Season stats
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.50 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 6.00 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | +0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | +0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Liverpool won 3, Villarreal 1, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2022 | Villarreal | 2–3 | Liverpool | UEFA Champions League |
| 27 Apr 2022 | Liverpool | 2–0 | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
| 5 May 2016 | Liverpool | 3–0 | Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| 28 Apr 2016 | Villarreal | 1–0 | Liverpool | UEFA Europa League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutC. BradleyKnee
- OutH. EkitikeAchilles Tendon
- OutJ. FrimpongMuscle
Show 5 more
- OutG. LeoniKnee
- OutV. MunozKnee
- OutD. SzoboszlaiMuscle
- OutF. ChiesaOff the roster
- OutW. EndoOff the roster
- OutN. PepeEye injury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Liverpool 3Villarreal 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Liverpool 3 · Villarreal 3
- Referee
- Szymon Marciniak
- Coaches
- Andoni Iraola
- Liverpool, since Jul 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
